Here's today's update from the numbers released this afternoon by Denton County Public Health. Both graphs are showing the same data but presented two different ways:
GRAPH 1
Seven day average of new daily pediatric COVID cases in Denton County. At the bottom are some quick stats on the pandemic environment locally- percent fully vaccinated (all ages), pediatric case prevalence compared with case prevalence across all ages in Denton County, available ICU beds and available hospital beds and break down of new cases by pediatric age group. I have also included the test positive rate for that day as well.
We'll want to keep an eye on the 0-4 age group as they are too young to be vaccinated.
GRAPH 2
Seven day average of pediatric cases per 100,000 using the pediatric population as the cohort. The vertical bars are the number of new pediatric cases each day. Because cases are not reported on weekends or holidays, to determine the seven day average, I carry over Friday's numbers into Saturday/Sunday as a rough approximation. Realistically, when cases are climbing this is likely an under-count and when cases are declining, this can be an over-count by doing it this way, but it evens out in the long run.
THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND
Home rapid antigen tests are not reported to DCPH and are not part of the totals released each day. Those totals are likely an undercount since home tests aren't included.
A test positive rate over 10% indicates that community spread is overwhelming existing test infrastructure. A TPR >10% means that not enough testing is being done to catch all positive cases and check their close contacts. The greater the TPR over 10%, the more extensive community spread.
A case prevalence greater than 25 new daily cases per 100,000 (or 56 new daily pediatric cases in Denton County and 56 is the number specifically based on Denton County's pediatric population) is indicative of extensive community transmission of COVID.
The numbers I have seen in the last 72 hours are higher and far worse than what I have seen locally since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.
A vaccinated+boosted positive case is a different situation than an unvaccinated positive case. Hospitalization and ICU utilization data will likely provide a more accurate measure of the pandemic environment than case numbers. Many of the leading or early parameters we used in 2020 and through most of 2021 are not as reliable now due to a variety factors- vaccination rates, more contagious variants, testing shortages, etc.
Omicron is vastly more contagious but avoid fatalism in this phase of the pandemic. Consistent use of a high quality mask (N95 or KN95) in indoor public spaces, good ventilation to insure air exchanges, making sure you and those you care about are vaccinated and boosted and following social distancing measures are still effective countermeasures against Omicron.
Remember, the Omicron variant needs an "air bridge" get inside your airways and infect you. This variant is challenging if not outright overturning much of our assumptions from 2020 and 2021.
The worst thing you can do now is feel hopeless. Continue to do what is right by your community.
My work in the Indian Health Service has been instructive in how to get through this pandemic not as individuals but as a community. The greatest measure of personal integrity and patriotism are the actions you take to benefit those whose names you will never know.