Today's data from Denton County Public Health showed a massive increase in cases- 2070 new cases across all age groups, 402 of them are in those under 19. We have never had such a dramatic increase in new cases in a single day in the two years of this pandemic in Denton County. DCPH director Matt Richardson today stated this massive increase is NOT from testing in the past week but new data as it came in today. Be wary of narratives that blame this increase on catching upon reported tests from last week. That's not the case.
This is Omicron. This is what it does in communities. It spreads like wildfire among the unvaccinated and even the unboosted are vulnerable. Some are unvaccinated by choice. Some are unvaccinated by the choice of their parents. And there are those among us who are simply too young to be vaccinated.
First graph here shows the seven day average in the number of new pediatric cases in Denton County. Today is the first day since the Delta surge in September that the per 100,000 prevalence amongst kids in Denton County is higher than it is across all age groups in Denton County. The biggest, unmasked gathering each day in Denton County is our schools. Each and every school lacking a mask mandate is going to accelerate community spread. We have seen this REPEATEDLY with past surges.
Keep in mind that home rapid antigen testing is not reported to DCPH and that the numbers here should be considered an undercount of what's really going on in our county.
Second graph is the same data for kids in Denton County but calculated out as per 100,000, a commonly used epidemiological method that normalizes for population and allows us to compared different sized populations. In many ways, absolute case numbers are not as useful as per 100K numbers as it gives us a better idea of pandemic community burden. You can see the big spike from today's pediatric cases reported to DCPH.
Third graph shows the per 100K hospitalization trends in the four most populous counties of the DFW Metroplex. You can see that hospitalizations are increasing in all four counties, in the case of Dallas and Tarrant Counties, increasing at a rate faster than what was the case during the Delta surge in September. This is concerning for those of us in the suburbs and outlying communities of DFW as the main tertiary care facilities of the Metroplex are in Dallas and in Fort Worth.
WHAT CAN WE ANTICIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS?
1/ The current case increase is driven by exposures from last week as this trend was already underway BEFORE school started last Thursday. I'd anticipate a "double hump"- probably a small leveling off or dip, then a continued if not faster increase in new cases next week.
2/ Accelerating staff absences at not just schools but also workplaces, retail, and restaurants in the next 2 weeks. Schools should be prepared for the possibility of significant disruption of daily operations on their campuses ranging from classrooms to athletics. Be prepared for the possibility of short staffing at stores and restaurants.
3/ Continued increase in hospitalizations and ICU utilization. There is only one monoclonal treatment effective against Omicron and it is is in very short supply nowhere near the amounts we need to treat all those getting sick. Omicron is resistant the other more widely available monoclonal antibody treatments. Paxlovid, the new oral antiviral medication, is also in very short supply with insufficient amounts available to treat those who needed.
4/ The unvaccinated are driving the hospitalization surge and increases in critical care utilization. The unboosted are less vulnerable to hospitalization than the unvaccinated but more vulnerable than those who have gotten their boosters.
5/ Omicron being mild MY ASS. Pediatric hospitalizations are increasing. Adult hospitalizations are increasing. We now know that kids who get COVID have a 2.5X higher risk for developing diabetes. Two years into this and we are not materially better off in this pandemic with surge. We have the tools, we have the science, but the politicization and disregard of scientific expertise in this pandemic and the disrespect shown the medical community is the single most demoralizing thing I have experienced in my 20+ year career.