PEDIATRIC COVID DATA/DENTON COUNTY/JANUARY 19
"Whoever knows the right thing to do and fails to do it, for him it is a sin." (James 4:17)
Denton County Public Health data released yesterday shows a continued significant increase in COVID case numbers across all ages in the Denton County as well as in the pediatric population indicates an acceleration of the community spread of the virus.
Three graphs for this post, first one is the seven day average of new pediatric cases in the county. The faint blue line represents the new pediatric COVID cases reported each day. The second graph is the same data, but as a seven day average of pediatric cases per 100,000, using the pediatric population of Denton County as the cohort (225,615 kids in our county). The orange vertical bars the the new pediatric COVID cases reported each day. Incidents per 100K is a standard way of expressing prevalence of a given disease state in a population and it allows us to compare two different sized populations.
The third graph shows hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the seven largest counties in Texas- Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin and Denton Counties. Dallas, Tarrant, and Collin Counties have already surpassed the hospitalization high water mark from the Delta surge at the end of the summer.
We had 916 new pediatric cases in Denton County yesterday. Home tests can now be self-reported to DCPH but is still likely that official case numbers are going to be an undercount of the true extent of the Omicron surge in our community.
TAKE HOME MESSAGES
1/ The prevalence of new daily pediatric COVID cases is exceeding the prevalence of COVID across all age groups in Denton County. This indicates that those under the age of 19 are bearing a larger pandemic burden than the entire population of the county as a whole.
2/ In the 0-4 age group, they had the biggest jump in new daily cases ever since this data has been released to the public in August prior to the Delta surge. This is the age group that is too young for vaccination as it is currently authorized down to the age of 5.
3/ We have never had numbers like this in Denton County in the two years of the pandemic. This is highly discouraging that so many in the community act is if an unprecedented public health emergency is not going on.
4/ While pediatric hospitalizations and death from COVID are uncommon, we already know that kids who have had COVID have a 2.5X increased risk for developing diabetes. The pancreas, the organ that makes insulin, is one of the targets for the virus. Epidemiological data from the UK now shows that the number of children with Long COVID has doubled since the start of their Omicron surge and the number of kids battling Long COVID symptoms in the UK more than 12 months has increased dramatically.
5/ Every student in the school districts and every child in this county is part of a household and that household may have family members who are at risk for serious COVID infection in unvaccinated or getting infected despite vaccination. It may be age, cancer treatment, obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, chronic lung disease. Approximately 65% of American adults have at least one risk factor for serious COVID infection. That means the majority of kids have at least one parent or two who are at high risk of serious infection. Enacting a mask mandate and earnest social distancing measures in the schools doesn't just protect our children, it protects their families as well. I am currently working on the Warm Springs Reservation on the eastern slope of the Oregon Cascades and we are seeing whole families getting sick. Prior surges I have worked on Native American reservations we have not seen household spread to such a degree.
6/ The trend in hospitalizations is unsustainable yet shows no sign of easing. As hospitalizations are a lagging pandemic indicator, even after cases peak and start declining, the hospitalizations will continue to increase to levels the health care systems of our community and state are not set up to deal with. We have significantly less critical care capacity than during the Alpha surge a year ago due to burnout and staff getting COVID from a far more contagious variant.
7/ We have the scientific tools to mitigate this damage but failure to enact these measures based on best medical practices and standards of care continues to be an extraordinary failure on the part of the school districts to protect not just the students, but their families and the community as a whole. Piecemeal closure of schools for a few days here in there is a flawed reactive response that does nothing to slow this runaway train. With large numbers of teaching staff out sick, the use of non-teaching staff to keep classes going compromises our children's education given there are no remote/virtual plans in place.
It is stunningly tragic to me as a physician and a parent that the school district has chosen this approach, AND a significant part of the community supports this tremendously flawed response that fails to put the safety of the students and their families as a priority.